ARIMA
ARIMA looks at past numbers in order and uses them to guess future numbers.
What it does
ARIMA looks at past numbers in order and uses them to guess future numbers.
Time Series: Data in time order • Seasonality: Repeating cycles
How it works
- Read the history of values.
- Look for patterns and changes.
- Forecast the next values.
Uses & Applications
- A shop can estimate next week’s sales.
- A power company can predict electricity use.
- A weather station can forecast a simple time pattern.
In short
ARIMA forecasts using time-ordered data.
Try it yourself
Guess what the next numbers might be
Look at the changes between past numbers. Use their average change to guess the next few values.
Your turn
Change one setting at a time. Reset example puts everything back.
Forecast a differenced series
Step 1Why this happens